What indicator are you currently paying most attention to?

I mostly watch supply and demand fundamentals in markets as commodities are global assets. I believe that supply and demand drive prices and determine longer-term price trends. When it comes to the market's overall sentiment, the VIX volatility index on S&P 500 stocks is generally an excellent barometer when it comes to fear and uncertainty in markets. The latest move to the upside in the VIX on the back of Coronavirus reflects the period of risk-off behavior that could increase if the virus continues to spread and claim for victims in China and around the world. When it comes to the commodities asset class, I watch copper and oil prices as barometers of the economic health and wellbeing of the world. I watch gold as a sentiment indicator and a barometer for global currency values. I also watch the price of lumber as it reflects the trend in interest rates.

Where do you see the biggest opportunity for growth in the markets?

I see 2020 as a volatile year where trading rather than investing is likely to yield optimal results. When it comes to growth, the trade deal between the US and China and the USMC are important watershed trade protocols that should lift raw material prices once Coronavirus is out of the way. I continue to believe that the path of least resistance of gold reflects the devaluation of currency prices across all foreign exchange instruments. Gold is sending the markets a signal that years of central bank accommodation comes at a steep price. Finally, each year is a new adventure in agricultural markets. The global population has grown by another approximately 80 million people since last year at this time. The requirement for nutrition and food products is an ever-rising factor in the world. The weather and growing conditions across the world will determine if supplies can meet demand, and going into the spring each year, uncertainty tends to rise. There will come a time when grain and other food prices experience explosive rallies. I believe risk-reward favors the upside as demand underpins prices, and that trend is ever- increasing.

What is the greatest threat to the bullish trend?

The current threat to the bullish trend in the stock market is an excuse for equities to move lower! We are seeing that with Coronavirus. We could see it if Iran decides to make other provocative moves. And, there is always the potential for a surprise that could shock markets. North Korea, Hong Kong, a trade war between the US and Europe, or another European sovereign debt crisis or departure from the EU are candidates. The unknown always has the potential for periods of shock and awe in markets. However, the most significant threat is the upcoming US election.

How will you trade the 2020 election?

Volatility is the mother's milk of opportunity for nimble traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets. The 2020 US election has the potential to create periods of massive price variance in markets across a host of asset classes over the second half of the year. The election will serve as not only a referendum on President Trump's performance but on the direction of US policy when it comes to energy, taxes, social welfare, wealth, and a host of other initiatives. I believe we will see markets begin to move higher and lower with the political polls later this year creating lots of opportunities. I further believe that the volatility could be extreme if the Democrats nominate a progressive candidate rather than a moderate to challenge the incumbent President. President Trump has an excellent chance of re-election, despite the current polls. The robust economy is a powerful force in an election year. Impeachment and the trial have strengthened his political base. In the aftermath of the trial next week, the House and Senate are likely to get back to "no-business" as usual which will be fodder on the campaign trail. The Chinese have a curse that says "May you live in interesting times." The 2020 election should be the embodiment of that curse.

Will the markets be above or below their current point in April?

My gut tells me that the trend is your friend, the Fed and other central banks around the world will not hike rates any time soon, so the markets will find another higher low and stocks will put in new highs. However, we could see a very bumpy road with more than a few potholes between now and April and throughout the rest of this year. The one caveat is China. If Coronavirus turns out to be worse than I believe it will be, we could see a prolonged risk-off period. China is the second-leading economy in the world with the most people. When China catches a virus, and it is ground zero for Coronavirus, the rest of the world comes down with financial pneumonia. Any issues impacting the Chinese economy could have dire consequences for the world's economy.